Download GlobalData’s Covid-19 Executive Briefing report
- ECONOMIC IMPACT -
Latest update: 18 November
Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.
Stronger than expected performance in Q2 and Q3 resulted in an upwards revision of global real GDP growth in 2020.
IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.
Unemployment rate in South Africa reached a 17-year high of 30.8% in Q3 2020.
Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices
- SECTOR IMPACT: TRAVEL AND TOURISM -
Latest update: 04 November
Tourism market imapact
Spending will fall broadly in line with the decline in tourism flows. GlobalData forecasts that inbound expenditure globally will fall by 37.9% in 2020.
GlobalData forecasts that international arrivals into the 62 largest tourism markets will fall by 34.8% in 2020. Many countries continue to struggle. An increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and widespread travel restrictions across Europe mean that these figures could well be worse than originally projected. This is suppressing demand.
Traveler confidence has been significantly damaged. Ever-changing travel corridors and quarantine measures, coupled with somewhat opaque refund policies have caused would-be bookers to remain cautious.
Demand remains extremely subdued and the scaling back of planned flight
increases shows that the expected uptick has not materialised to the extent
that was hoped for. The key summer period has now passed in many countries and renewed travel restrictions and quarantine measures have checked any momentum that was building.
October was characterised by announcements of new lockdown measures
across much of Europe. A month-long nationwide lockdown was announced
in England, following a similar announcement in France. Czechia, Germany,
Italy, Poland and Portugal among others have all announced more stringent
restrictions and this will obviously impact demand.
TRAVEL & TOURISM MITIGATION STRATEGIES